📈 Stage set for rate cuts

CPI ‘checks the box’ for Fed cuts, here’s the inflation breakdown for July, two alarming signs of recessions emerge, Berkshire discloses surprise stake in Ulta Beauty, and WeRide gets approval to carry passengers in California...

Author

Smart Owl
August 15, 2024

Good morning.

The Fast Five → CPI ‘checks the box’ for Fed cuts, here’s the inflation breakdown for July, two alarming signs of recessions emerge, Berkshire discloses surprise stake in Ulta Beauty, and WeRide gets approval to carry passengers in California…

Calendar: (all times ET)

  • Today: Initial jobless claims, 8:30 AM

    • US retail sales, 8:30 AM

    • Business inventories, 10:00 AM

  • Tomorrow: [none]

Your 5-minute briefing for Thursday, August 15:

BEFORE THE OPEN

As of market close 8/14/2024.

PRE-MARKET

MARKETS

  • US stocks roses slightly as investors digested encouraging CPI inflation data

  • Markets are seeing 50-50 odds of 50 bps and 25 bps Fed rate cut, and 90% chance of a second 25 bps ECB rate cut in September

EARNINGS

  • UBS rose 6% after smashing Q2 profit estimates thanks to cost-cutting and a revenue boost from its consolidation of Credit Suisse (link)

  • Cisco jumped 6% after beating Q4 EPS and revenue estimates and announcing a cost cutting and restructuring plan to boost financials (link)

  • What we're watching this week:

    • Today: Walmart, Alibaba, Applied Materials

  • Full calendar here

NEWS BRIEFING

Core CPI rose 3.2% from July 2023, slowest in three years, bringing a degree of relief to markets still reeling after last week’s meltdown.

A cooling labor market is raising concerns that the U.S. economy might be heading toward a recession after all this year, instead of making the soft landing projected by most experts.

  • Here’s the inflation breakdown for July 2024 (link)

  • Wall St fear gauge in record retreat after last week's massive spike (link)

  • Dollar softens against euro as inflation data shows cooling (link)

  • Oil halts two-day drop as Iran tensions vie with stockpile build (link)

  • Berkshire discloses surprise stake in Ulta Beauty, Heico (link)

  • Chinese robotaxi startup WeRide gets approval to drive in CA (link)

  • Wall Street firms to pay over $470 million to settle with US regulators over texting (link)

  • Elliott seeks 10 of the 15 board seats at Southwest in bid to strengthen the airline’s performance (link)

  • US judge blocks Missouri rule curbing socially-conscious investing (link)

  • Court upholds blockbuster $267 million legal fee award in Dell lawsuit (link)

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin ETFs saw $19.3 billion in inflows this year, with BlackRock now the third-largest BTC holder, on track to be first by 2025 (link)

  • Fidelity hinted at launching a stablecoin, tokenized Treasury, and on-chain credit offerings, exploring tokenization opportunities (link)

  • NYSE Arca withdrew its request to list options on commodity trusts and crypto ETFs amid recent regulatory scrutiny (link)

You Can Sponsor this Newsletter details here.​

DAILY SHARES

Keep the curation going! Buy the team a coffee ☕️