📈 Pfizer's Moment of Truth

Good morning.

⚡ The Fast Five → Olympus slips on CEO drug allegations, Boeing looking for $15B, Apple Ai leans in iPhone, Nvidia focused on this week, Pfizer activist pushing a turnaround

And now…

⏱️ Your 5-minute briefing for Monday, October 28, 2024:

MARKET BRIEF
Before the Open

Pre-Market

Fear & Greed

Trends

Markets in Review: Dow slipped 0.6% to 42,114, while tech-heavy Nasdaq climbed 0.6% to 18,518. S&P 500 held steady at 5,808.

The Big Picture: Wall Street's serving up a classic volatility cocktail, but savvy investors should be licking their lips. Earnings season is throwing haymakers at some big names, yet the broader market's resilience tells a bullish story.

Here's what's really cooking: While old-school players like McDonald's ($MCD) and HCA Healthcare ($HCA) took hits, next-gen winners like Deckers ($DECK) are crushing it with an 11% pop. That's not just noise – it's a market rewarding innovation and adaptation.

Go Deeper:

• Consumer Confidence Alert: Michigan survey just hit its highest mark since April. Translation? Your average shopper's feeling better about their wallet – historically a green light for market gains.

• Boeing Blues = Buying Chance: Strip out aircraft orders, and durable goods data shows surprising strength. Wall Street's missing the forest for the trees here.

• M&A Drama: The Tapestry-Capri ($TPR, $CPRI) deal drama shows appetite for premium brands remains hot – a bullish sign for luxury sector consolidation.

What They're Saying: "Pop the hood and the September durable goods report reveals encouraging signs of life away from the gloom," - BMO analysts, seeing past the headline noise.

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING
Events

• Tues. Oct. 29: Conference Board - Consumer Confidence, 10:00AM

• Why You Should Care: Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.

Earnings Reports

• Today: Waste Management, Ford, Brown & Brown

• Tomorrow: Alphabet, Visa, Novartis, McDonald’s, Pfizer, Stryker, Anheuser-Busch

MARKET BRIEF
Leading News

Pfizer's Moment of Truth

Why it matters: As activist investors shake things up at Pfizer, investors have a rare opportunity to grab shares of a blue-chip pharma powerhouse at half its pandemic-era valuation — with a juicy 6% dividend to boot.

The big picture: Pfizer's facing its biggest reset since the COVID boom, with activist hedge fund Starboard Value pushing for major changes. The stock's been beaten down as pandemic revenues faded, but here's the plot twist: 2024 could mark the start of Pfizer 2.0.

The company's gone shopping lately, dropping $43 billion on cancer specialist Seagen in a bold bet on oncology. While Wall Street's been sleeping on these moves, they're laying the groundwork for what could be a massive comeback story.

Go deeper:

• The oncology play 

  • Cancer drugs Padcev and Adcetris (from the Seagen deal) are about to hit their stride

  • Think of it as Pfizer's "Netflix moment" — pivoting from old revenue streams to future growth engines

• The value proposition 

  • Trading at multi-year lows despite a dividend yield (~6%) that crushes Treasury rates

  • Cost-cutting initiatives + new product launches = potential earnings surprise in 2024

• The tech angle 

  • Pfizer's not just old-school pharma — they're leveraging AI in drug development

  • The company's digital transformation could accelerate R&D timelines

What they're saying: "By the time Pfizer has proven there was wisdom to these acquisitions... it won't be a $28 stock anymore," says William Couchman, Birmingham Capital Management.

The bottom line: Think Amazon post-2001 or Microsoft circa 2013 — sometimes the best opportunities come when legacy players reinvent themselves. With activist investors providing the catalyst and that fat dividend paying you to wait, $PFE could be a sleeper hit.

Headlines

• Nvidia has lots riding on this week even as earnings a month out (link)

• Cut or pause? 2 critical reports will determine what Fed does in November. (link)

• Boeing plans over $15 billion capital hike as soon as Monday (link)

• Olympus shares drop over 5% after CEO resigns over drug allegation (link)

• Why Apple’s AI Success Hinges on the iPhone (link)

CRYPTO
Fear & Greed

Headlines

• Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing to Launch Crypto Index in November (link)

• Stripe buys Bridge for $1.1B, Azura bags $6.9M (link)

• Marc Andreessen shoutouts help AI-powered VC fund ai16z to nearly $100 million market cap (link)

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