📈 Nvidia's AI Trillion-Dollar Promise

Good morning.

⚡ The Fast Five → Medlogix and Forcura merge into $1B healthcare software biz, Starboard prepares proxy fight at Autodesk, Advanced Instruments to buy Nova Biomedical for $2.2B, Nasdaq to open TX headquarters, Nvidia stock rises as GTC leaves Wall Street comfortable

🔎 Market Trends → Wall Street rallies as Fed keeps rates unchanged; US Futures Extend Gains as Fed Signals Rate Cuts

And now…

⏱️ Your 5-minute briefing for Thursday, March 20, 2025:

MARKET BRIEF
Before the Open

Pre-Market

Fear & Greed

Markets in Review

Markets Rally as Fed Stays the Course, Boeing Soars

Stocks climbed after the Fed held rates steady, signaling patience on policy adjustments. The Nasdaq rose 1.4% to 17,750.8, the S&P 500 gained 1.1% to 5,675.3, and the Dow added 0.9% to 41,964.6. Every sector finished higher, led by consumer discretionary and energy.

The Big Picture:

The Fed kept its benchmark rate at 4.25%-4.50%, maintaining its outlook for 2025 while slightly downgrading economic projections. Despite concerns about fiscal policy headwinds, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reassured markets, saying there’s no rush to cut rates.

Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield down 3.3 basis points to 4.25%, while the two-year yield dropped 6.3 basis points to 3.98%. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil rose 0.5% to $67.21 a barrel despite an unexpected jump in US crude stockpiles.

Market Movers:

• Boeing (BA) jumped 6.8%, leading both the Dow and S&P 500. The aircraft maker expects lower-than-anticipated cash burn in Q1, easing investor concerns.

• Tesla (TSLA) climbed 4.7% after securing a Transportation Charter Permit in California—a crucial step toward launching its Robotaxi service.

• General Mills (GIS) fell 2.1% after lowering its full-year guidance, citing inventory issues and slowing snack demand in the US.

• Goldman Sachs (GS) slipped 1% after Oppenheimer downgraded investment banks on concerns that tariff uncertainty and fiscal tightening may delay M&A deals.

What They’re Saying:

"While the Fed maintains a relatively positive assessment of current conditions, policymakers remain wary of fiscal policy risks," Stifel wrote in a note.

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING
Events

• Today: Department of Labor - Unemployment Claims - 8:30am

  Why You Should Care: Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country's monetary policy.

Earnings Reports

• Today: Nike, FedEx, Darden Restaurants, Academy Sports + Outdoors, Accenture, Micron Technology, Lennar

• Tomorrow: Carnival, MINISO, NIO, Lithium Americas Corp.

MARKET BRIEF
Leading News

Nvidia's AI Trillion-Dollar Promise: Reality Check or Market Euphoria?

Why it matters:

Jensen Huang's trillion-dollar forecast for Nvidia's data center revenue by 2028 represents either the most spectacular growth story in tech history or Wall Street's most expensive case of collective confirmation bias.

Zoom Out:

The spectacle of Nvidia's GTC event—complete with Huang's iconic black leather jacket and bombastic pronouncements—masks a crucial question savvy investors must confront: Is the 14% year-to-date decline in NVDA shares a buying opportunity or the market's rational reassessment of unsustainable expectations?

Wall Street's muted reaction suggests the "surprise factor" that once propelled Nvidia's valuation has diminished, even as the company unveils innovations like Blackwell Ultra and Vera Rubin chips aimed at powering the next generation of artificial intelligence.

Key Insights:

• Blackwell's accelerated adoption presents compelling evidence for bulls, with Nvidia reporting 3.6 million units ordered from top hyperscalers in 2025—2.8x Hopper's peak year—suggesting demand remains robust despite market skepticism.

• The inference market expansion represents Nvidia's next frontier, with the company's Dynamo software positioned as "the operating system for AI Factories," potentially unlocking recurring revenue streams beyond hardware sales.

• Infrastructure roadmap clarity offers a counterpoint to bear arguments, with Stifel noting Nvidia's innovations target "reasoning models and agentic AI" that could drive "10-100x compute intensity"—a catalyst many investors haven't fully priced in.

Market Pulse:

"I graded this [an] A+ keynote—inflection point in AI spend," notes Wedbush's Dan Ives, standing firmly against the prevailing market reaction.

Bull’s Take:

The expectation-reality gap in Nvidia's stock performance creates a potential entry point for patient investors. While the days of quarterly doublings may be behind us, the company's expanding technical moat and $1 trillion TAM suggest the AI revolution—and Nvidia's central role in it—remains in early innings.

Headlines

• Microchip Technology shares fall after $1.35 billion convertible stock offering plan announced (link)

• Nasdaq to open new Texas headquarters as companies relocate to state (link)

• Medalogix, Forcura Merge to Form a $1 Billion Healthcare Software Business (link)

• Activist Starboard Prepares to Launch Proxy Fight at Autodesk (link)

• Advanced Instruments to Buy Nova Biomedical From Founding Shareholders in $2.2 Billion Deal (link)

• CoreWeave to ask for $47 to $55 per share in IPO, sources say (link)

CRYPTO
Fear & Greed

Headlines

• Bitcoin runs toward $86K after Fed maintains course, projecting two rate cuts in 2025 (link)

• Elon Musk’s AI Start-Up and Nvidia Join Microsoft, BlackRock, MGX AI Fund (link)

• Crypto Exchange Kraken Nears $1.5 Billion Deal for Futures Trading Business (link)

DAILY SHARE
On the Socials