📈 Media's Deal-Making Renaissance

Good morning.

⚡ The Fast Five → Bezos' Blue Origin gets FAA license, Siemens reviewing Healthineers stake, Novartis facing kickback claims, OpenAI seeks capital to become a public benefit corp., Major media dealmaking on the horizon

🔎 Market Trends → Wall St Week Ahead Trump's first actions and job data to test market in January; US Futures Indicate Weak Start for Wall Street

And now…

⏱️ Your 5-minute briefing for Monday, December 30, 2024:

MARKET BRIEF
Before the Open

Pre-Market

Fear & Greed

Markets in Review

Mega-Cap Tech Stocks Weigh on Markets as Year-End Approaches

The Nasdaq dropped 1.5% to 19,722, while the S&P 500 fell 1.1% to 5,970.8. The Dow declined 0.8% to 42,992.2. No sector posted gains, with consumer discretionary leading declines and energy holding steady.

The Big Picture:

Markets slid Friday, dragged down by weakness in mega-cap tech stocks, including Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Apple (AAPL). With only two trading days left in the year, 2024 remains a strong year for equities—the Nasdaq is up 31%, the S&P 500 has gained 25%, and the Dow has climbed 14%.

Investor sentiment entering 2025 remains optimistic, buoyed by expectations of pro-growth policies following the November presidential election. Analysts note that sustained US economic growth above 2% and corporate earnings growth exceeding 10% could provide a bullish backdrop for equities in the new year.

Oil prices rose 0.9% to $70.27/barrel, supported by a larger-than-expected decline in US crude stockpiles. Gold fell 0.8% to $2,632.60/oz, while silver declined 1.5%, reflecting softer safe-haven demand.

Market Movers:

• Nvidia (NVDA): Dropped -2.1%, leading declines on the Dow as mega-cap tech faced broad selling pressure.

• Lamb Weston (LW): Rose +2.6%, the S&P 500's top performer, after activist shareholder Jana Partners nominated a new board member for the frozen foods supplier.

• Amedisys (AMED): Gained +4.7% on news that its merger with UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is progressing, despite regulatory scrutiny.

What They’re Saying:

"2025 is primed for continued equity growth if the economy maintains momentum and earnings deliver on double-digit expectations," D.A. Davidson noted in a Friday report.

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING
Events

• There are no events scheduled for today.

Earnings Reports

• Today: BHP Group

• Tomorrow: San Juan Royalty Trust, Luna Innovations, Emcore, Advent Technologies

MARKET BRIEF
Leading News

Media's Great Reshuffle in 2025 Could Spark a Deal-Making Renaissance

Why it matters:

A perfect storm of lower interest rates, regulatory tailwinds, and $135.5B in dry powder is setting the stage for the biggest media consolidation wave since the streaming wars began. Smart money is positioning for a transformation in how we value and consume content.

Zoom Out:

The old guard of media is finally admitting what savvy investors have long suspected: the traditional cable bundle is going the way of the DVD player. Industry giants are unbundling themselves before the market does it for them.

Major players like Comcast (CMCSA), Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), and Disney (DIS) aren't just rearranging deck chairs – they're building entirely new ships. The catalyst? Trump's anticipated return to the White House, bringing a more deal-friendly regulatory environment.

Key Insights:

• Linear's Last Stand: Legacy networks are being carved out faster than a Thanksgiving turkey. But don't mistake this for a fire sale – it's strategic positioning. Companies like Starz are eyeing these "distressed" assets with surprising enthusiasm.

• The Regulatory Reset: Trump's FCC chair pick Brendan Carr signals a potential loosening of media ownership limits. Translation: Local TV consolidation could become the next gold rush.

• Follow the Money: Deal volume is up 4% YoY, with values surging 26% to $135.5B. Smart capital isn't running from media – it's running toward the right kinds of media assets.

Market Pulse:

"It's about to be a perfect storm for M&A to accelerate," says PwC's Bart Spiegel. Translation: The market is pricing in yesterday's news while tomorrow's media empires are being built at a discount.

Bull’s Take:

Think of 2025 as media's great reshuffle – where content meets capital efficiency. For investors willing to look past the cord-cutting hysteria, select media stocks trading at historic lows could offer asymmetric upside as consolidation accelerates and valuations normalize. Consider building positions in potential acquisition targets or consolidators while Wall Street is still focused on subscriber losses rather than strategic value.

Headlines

• Siemens reviewing Healthineers majority stake, CFO tells Handelsblatt (link)

• Bezos’ Blue Origin gets FAA license for its first New Glenn rocket launch (link)

• Novartis must face claims it paid kickbacks to promote MS drug, US appeals court rules (link)

• OpenAI to seek capital as a public benefit corporation in the vein of Patagonia (link)

• Jet crash disaster in South Korea marks another setback for Boeing (link)

• Big Lots reaches deal to keep hundreds of U.S. stores open (link)

CRYPTO
Fear & Greed

Headlines

• Bitcoin Institutional Adoption Accelerates as ETF Filings Show Investor Appetite (link)

• USDT supply drops $1.3 Billion: What it means for Bitcoin liquidity (link)

• Dogecoin Primed for a Price Rebound As Crypto Whales Accumulate DOGE, According to Analyst (link)

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