📈 IBM's 14% Surprise

Good morning.

⚡ The Fast Five → Cantor, SoftBank, and Tether join to launch BTC holding co, Boeing stock surges on earnings, Toyota invests big in WV, Chipotle sees slowdown, IBM beats on earnings and revenue

🔎 Market Trends → Wall Street ends higher on hopes of trade war de-escalation; US Futures Surge as Trump Confirms Powell Will Stay

And now…

⏱️ Your 5-minute briefing for Thursday, April 24, 2025:

MARKET BRIEF
Before the Open

Pre-Market

Fear & Greed

Markets in Review

Markets Climb as Trump Softens on China and Powell

The Nasdaq jumped 2.5% to 16,708.1, leading the charge, while the S&P 500 rose 1.7% to 5,375.9 and the Dow added 1.1% to 39,606.6. Gains were broad-based, with tech and consumer discretionary outperforming.

The Big Picture:

Stocks rebounded strongly Wednesday after President Trump dialed back rhetoric on China and clarified he has "no intention of firing" Fed Chair Jerome Powell—two signals that cooled near-term market anxiety.

While tensions with China remain, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said mutual tariff reductions may be on the table, hinting at a more cooperative path ahead. Even with macro data showing cooling growth, investors found relief in signs of political stability and a Fed likely to stay patient.

WTI crude fell 2.1% to $62.34, pressured by potential OPEC+ production increases. Gold slid 3.3% to $3,306.9, as risk appetite returned, while silver gained 2.1% to $33.60.

Market Movers:

• Tesla (TSLA) rose 5.4%, bouncing back despite an earnings miss. CEO Elon Musk’s reduced government role eased investor distraction concerns.

• Boeing (BA) surged 6.1%, topping the Dow, after a smaller-than-expected loss and strong airplane deliveries.

• Amphenol (APH) jumped 8.2%, best on the S&P 500, after raising its Q2 outlook on the heels of a beat.

• Enphase Energy (ENPH) sank 15.7%, the S&P 500’s worst, after a disappointing Q1 report and soft forward guidance.

What They’re Saying:

“Manufacturing is stagnating… but mutual tariff reductions may reduce economic drag,” said S&P Global’s Chris Williamson.

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING
Events

• Today: Department of Labor - Unemployment Claims - 8:30am

  Why You Should Care: Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country's monetary policy.

Earnings Reports

• Today: Alphabet (Google), PepsiCo, Procter & Gamble, T-Mobile, Comcast, Intel, Keurig Dr Pepper, Merck, Bristol-Myers Squibb

• Tomorrow: AbbVie, Colgate-Palmolive, Charter Communications, Phillips 66, AutoNation

MARKET BRIEF
Leading News

Big Blue Beats Street Despite Washington Wobbles, Signals Stable Growth Ahead

Why it matters:

IBM's resilience amidst federal contract cancellations reveals its strategic pivot to high-margin AI and cloud services is working, potentially offering value-minded investors a tech safe haven in uncertain times.

Zoom Out:

The storied tech giant ($IBM) delivered stronger-than-expected Q1 results with earnings of $1.60 per share against $1.40 expected, maintaining its full-year guidance for at least 5% revenue growth despite headwinds from the new administration's cost-cutting initiatives.

While 15 federal contracts worth about $100 million were shelved by Trump's Department of Governmental Efficiency (DOGE), this represents less than 1% of IBM's consulting backlog. CEO Arvind Krishna noted that although the "operating environment has been rapidly shifting," client demand for productivity gains and cost savings continues to drive IBM's hybrid cloud and AI strategy.

Key Insights:

• Software segment shines: Revenue rose 7% to $6.34 billion, with hybrid cloud offerings (including Red Hat) growing 12% — signaling that IBM's highest-margin business remains on solid footing despite macro uncertainties.

• AI momentum building: IBM's AI Book of Business has reached more than $6 billion inception-to-date, up about $1 billion from the previous quarter, suggesting its AI investments are starting to pay dividends.

• Limited tariff exposure: Unlike many tech peers, IBM reports that under 5% of its spending comes from goods imported to the U.S., providing relative insulation from potential trade tensions.

Market Pulse:

"While sentiment and the operating environment have been rapidly shifting, our performance reflects the continued success of our focused strategy around hybrid cloud and AI, especially where clients are looking for cost savings, productivity gains and trusted partners," said Krishna on the earnings call.

Bull’s Take:

IBM's 11% stock gain this year against the Nasdaq's 14% decline suggests the market is finally recognizing the value in this transformed tech veteran. For patient investors seeking technology exposure with relative safety, Big Blue's combination of 5% growth, robust free cash flow, and AI transformation offers a compelling alternative to higher-priced tech darlings.

Headlines

• Boeing Stock Surges on Earnings. There Is Still a Lot of Uncertainty Ahead. (link)

• Toyota Invests Big In West Virginia Plant With Tariff Boom (link)

• Lilly sues four compounders over copies of weight-loss drugs (link)

• Cantor, SoftBank, and Tether join hands to launch a company with 42K BTC in holdings (link)

• Chipotle is seeing a ‘slowdown’ in consumer spending as 2025 gets off to a rough start (link)

• Duolingo Stock Surges On Fresh Buy Rating, Street-High Price Target (link)

CRYPTO
Fear & Greed

Headlines

• Bitcoin’s rally to $94,000 pushes total crypto market cap above $3 trillion (link)

• Galaxy Digital Deepens AI and HPC Pivot With Expanded CoreWeave Deal, Shares Surge (link)

• DeFi Development Adds $9.9 Million In Solana Tokens Underscoring Its Commitment Towards Digital Asset Treasury Strategy (link)

DAILY SHARE
On the Socials