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📈 Elliot's $114B BP Play
Musk not interested in TikTok, Sonos hits the reset button, Disney hit with loss at parks, AMD revenue goes up but stock goes down, Activist investor aims to correct BP
Evelio Silvera
February 10, 2025
Good morning.
⚡ The Fast Five → Musk not interested in TikTok, Sonos hits the reset button, Disney hit with loss at parks, AMD revenue goes up but stock goes down, Activist investor aims to correct BP
🔎 Market Trends → Wall Street closes lower on trade war escalation, mixed data; US stock futures take latest jobs data in stride
And now…
⏱️ Your 5-minute briefing for Monday, February 10, 2025:
MARKET BRIEF
Before the Open
As of market close 02/07/2025.
Pre-Market
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Fear & Greed
Markets in Review
Markets Slide as Job Growth Slows, Inflation Fears Rise
The Nasdaq fell 1.4% to 19,523.4, while the Dow and S&P 500 each lost 1%, closing at 44,303.4 and 6,026, respectively. Consumer discretionary led declines, while energy held steady.
The Big Picture:
A softer-than-expected jobs report rattled investors Friday, while consumer sentiment data signaled rising inflation concerns. The U.S. added 143,000 jobs in January, missing the 175,000 consensus estimate.
Meanwhile, consumer sentiment fell to a seven-month low, and inflation expectations rose to their highest level since late 2023, according to the University of Michigan survey. Concerns over tariffs from the Trump administration, particularly retaliatory measures from China, added uncertainty.
Bond markets reacted swiftly: The 2-year Treasury yield jumped 8.1 basis points to 4.29%, while the 10-year yield climbed 5.5 basis points to 4.49%.
Market Movers:
Amazon (AMZN) dropped 4.1%, despite beating Q4 expectations. The e-commerce giant’s soft Q1 revenue forecast spooked investors.
e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) plunged 20%, its worst drop in years, after lowering its fiscal 2025 outlook despite recent market share gains.
Expedia (EXPE) soared 17%, topping the S&P 500 after beating Q4 estimates and reinstating its quarterly dividend.
Uber (UBER) gained 6.6% as billionaire investor Bill Ackman revealed a 30.3 million share stake in the ride-hailing company.
What They’re Saying:
"With inflation progress stalling and uncertainty around tariffs, the Fed will likely stay cautious on rate cuts until the summer," TD Economics wrote in a client note.
WHAT WE’RE WATCHING
Events
Today: Federal Reserve - Fed Chair Powell Testifies - 10:00am
Why You Should Care: As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation's currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.
Earnings Reports
Today: McDonald's, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Rockwell Automation, Onsemi, Incyte, Lattice Semiconductor
Tomorrow: Coca-Cola, DoorDash, Marriott International, Humana, Zillow, S&P Global, Shopify, American International Group
MARKET BRIEF
Leading News
Big Oil's Sleeping Giant Awakens: Elliott's BP Bet Could Unlock Hidden Value
Why it matters:
As activist investor Elliott Management takes aim at BP (BP), the $114B energy giant's transformation from ESG poster child to potential value play signals a seismic shift in how Wall Street views traditional energy assets.
Zoom Out:
BP has been the market's unloved stepchild, with shares down 8% over five years while rivals Shell (SHEL) and TotalEnergies (TTE) surged +33%. That performance gap has attracted the attention of Paul Singer's Elliott Investment Management, notorious for engineering corporate makeovers that unlock shareholder value.
The company's identity crisis – trying to balance its legacy oil business with ambitious clean energy goals – has left it stranded between two investing megatrends: traditional energy and the green transition.
Key Insights:
Show Me The Money: BP's new CEO Murray Auchincloss is already pivoting back to core strengths, spinning off renewable assets and targeting Middle Eastern oil reserves. Think of it as a "back to basics" approach that could reignite cash flows.
Hidden Assets: The company's EV charging network (37,500 stations with plans for 100k by 2030) and Lightsource renewable unit represent potentially undervalued tech plays within an old-school energy wrapper.
Market Pulse:
"The crux of BP's issues relate to poor capital allocation alongside these strategic shifts," notes RBC analyst Biraj Borkhataria. Translation: The company tried to be everything to everyone, and ended up disappointing everyone instead.
Bull’s Take:
With Elliott pushing for change and energy markets remaining structurally tight, BP could be sitting on a powder keg of value waiting to be unlocked. Smart money is betting that this British giant's transformation story might be 2025's most compelling energy play.
Headlines
Elon Musk says he is not interested in buying TikTok (link)
Anduril in talks to raise money at $28 billion valuation as defense-tech booms (link)
Sonos Finally Hits the Hard Reset Button (link)
Disney suffers unexpected loss at its theme parks (link)
What's Going on With AMD Stock? (link)
Tech megacaps plan to spend more than $300 billion in 2025 as AI race intensifies (link)
CRYPTO
Fear & Greed
Headlines
DAILY SHARE
On the Socials
*Hat-tip to dougboneparth
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