Eli Lilly’s Weight-Loss Edge: Zepbound Takes the Lead

Why it Matters

Weight-loss drugs are reshaping the pharmaceutical landscape, with Eli Lilly’s Zepbound (LLY) and Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy (NVO) competing for a market projected to hit $42 billion by 2029. The latest head-to-head trial could shift the balance of power—and investors are taking notice.

Zoom Out

Eli Lilly’s Zepbound just delivered a decisive win in the first-ever comparison against Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy. In a 72-week trial, Zepbound users shed up to 20.2% of their body weight—nearly 50 pounds—versus 13.7% (33 pounds) for Wegovy users. Beyond aesthetics, this weight loss translates to significant health benefits.

Zepbound’s unique mechanism, combining GLP-1 and GIPR hormones, sets it apart. Novo’s Wegovy focuses solely on GLP-1. Analysts predict this innovation will drive accelerating market share gains for Eli Lilly, starting as soon as 2027 when Zepbound sales are expected to edge out Wegovy.

However, safety metrics remain critical. While Zepbound typically outperforms Wegovy in tolerability, nausea and vomiting rates still exist, especially at higher doses.

Key Insights

• Head-to-Head Trial Results: Zepbound achieved nearly 50% better weight loss outcomes than Wegovy.

• Projected Sales Leadership: By 2027, Zepbound sales are expected to hit $18.77 billion, narrowly surpassing Wegovy’s $18.7 billion, with the gap widening further by 2029.

• Market Implications: Analysts are bullish, noting Zepbound could boost Eli Lilly’s stock beyond its $972.53 buy point, especially with a decisive move above its 50-day line.

Market Pulse

"The head-to-head results solidify Zepbound’s position as a game-changer in obesity treatment," says David Risinger of Leerink Partners, maintaining an outperform rating on Eli Lilly.

The Bull’s Take

Eli Lilly is poised to dominate a lucrative and expanding weight-loss market, leveraging superior efficacy and strong innovation pipelines. With Zepbound expected to surpass Wegovy in sales by 2027, now might be the time for savvy investors to keep LLY on their radar.

Actionable Insight: Consider aggressive entry points if LLY decisively breaks above its 50-day moving average ($829.84). Stay bullish on innovation driving this transformative market.