📈 Bitcoin Meets Nasdaq

Good morning.

⚡ The Fast Five → Novo and Catalent fulfill obligations for $16.5B deal, Costco positioned for future gains, Foreign Investment panel split on sale of US Steel, SpaceX seeks its own city in TX, MicroStrategy's Nasdaq 100 debut

🔎 Market Trends → US stocks close flat as Nasdaq extends weekly gains, S&P 500 and Dow dip; US Futures Fall after PPI Report

And now…

⏱️ Your 5-minute briefing for Monday, December 16, 2024:

MARKET BRIEF
Before the Open

Pre-Market

Fear & Greed

Markets in Review

Markets Steady as Fed Decision Looms

The Nasdaq rose 0.1% to 19,926.7, while the Dow fell 0.2% to 43,828.1. The S&P 500 was flat at 6,051.1, as tech stocks outperformed while communication services lagged.

The Big Picture:

Investors wrapped up the week with a mixed performance, balancing cautious optimism ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Markets are pricing in a 93% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut, underscoring expectations for a measured approach to monetary easing in 2025.

This week’s consumer price index met expectations, but a hotter-than-expected producer price index highlighted lingering cost pressures. The Fed’s tone next week could provide clarity on its pace of rate adjustments.

Oil prices climbed 1.5% to $71.06/barrel, with geopolitical risks adding to supply concerns. Meanwhile, gold fell 1.6% to $2,667.30/oz, and silver declined 1.9%, reflecting reduced safe-haven demand as markets digested mixed inflation signals.

Market Movers:

• Broadcom (AVGO): Surged +24.4%, topping the Nasdaq and S&P 500, on strong Q4 earnings. The company is poised for explosive AI-driven growth, with new customers fueling optimism.

• Under Armour (UA): Fell -8.1% after its investor meeting, as analysts questioned visibility into the sportswear maker’s long-term recovery plan.

• Airbnb (ABNB): Dropped -4.7%, the steepest S&P 500 loser, reflecting concerns about slowing growth in a competitive vacation rental market.

• Post Holdings (POST): Declined -2.2% amid reports of a potential deal with Lamb Weston (LW), whose shares soared +6.8% on activist shareholder pressure for a sale.

What They’re Saying:

"The Fed’s steady hand remains critical as markets recalibrate to waning disinflationary trends. Investors should expect a patient approach to rate cuts, balancing economic growth with inflation risks," said Stifel in a note to clients.

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING
Events

• Today: S&P Global - Flash Manufacturing PMI / Flash Services PMI - 9:45am

• Why You Should Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.

Earnings Reports

• Today: BHP Group, Compass Minerals

• Tomorrow: Heico, Worthington Enterprises

MARKET BRIEF
Leading News

Bitcoin’s Biggest Bull Lands on the Nasdaq-100

Why it matters:

MicroStrategy (MSTR) is joining the Nasdaq-100, signaling deeper ties between crypto and traditional finance. This milestone could further fuel both the stock’s meteoric rise and Bitcoin's (BTC) ongoing rally.

Zoom Out:

MicroStrategy, already known as the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, is getting a prime spot in one of the most influential indices, the Nasdaq-100. This index, home to giants like Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT), tracks the top non-financial companies and drives billions in investment through ETFs like Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ).

MicroStrategy’s strategy is simple but bold: buy Bitcoin—a lot of it. The company holds $44 billion worth of BTC, roughly 2% of the total supply, and has doubled its holdings this year via equity and debt deals. Now, its inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 is poised to trigger fresh inflows from ETFs and funds that must align with the index.

This cycle of capital—index funds buying MicroStrategy shares, raising its value, and enabling more Bitcoin purchases—is a potential game-changer for both MicroStrategy and the crypto ecosystem.

Deep Dive:

• 550% stock surge in 2024: MSTR has already outperformed thanks to Bitcoin's climb past $106,000, bolstered by optimism around pro-crypto policies from President-elect Donald Trump.

• Biggest corporate Bitcoin holder: With its market cap now over $100 billion, MicroStrategy's BTC stash is a cornerstone of its valuation, even as the software business remains secondary.

• ETF multiplier effect: Inclusion in QQQ ($322B AUM) could drive demand for MSTR shares, amplifying its buying power and solidifying Bitcoin's position as a mainstream asset.

Market Pulse:

"Longer term, this is a huge milestone for crypto," notes Matthew Dibb, CIO at Astronaut Capital. "This could be the start of a capital loop driving Bitcoin prices higher."

Bull’s Take:

MicroStrategy’s Nasdaq-100 debut isn’t just a win for Bitcoin—it’s a crypto milestone. For investors, this reinforces BTC as a credible macro play and highlights MSTR’s potential as a high-risk, high-reward proxy for crypto exposure. For investors, consider MSTR as a leveraged bet on Bitcoin’s long-term growth. Watch for the December 23 inclusion date, as fresh inflows could create short-term momentum. If you're long BTC, this is another bullish signal to stay the course.

Headlines

• Regulatory conditions on Novo Holdings' $16.5 billion Catalent deal fulfilled, companies say (link)

• Costco, boosted by traffic and digital sales, is well positioned for future gains, says Jefferies (link)

• Is Walgreens Boots Alliance a Millionaire Maker? (link)

• SpaceX wants to make Starbase a new Texas city. Here’s how it could happen (link)

• Marathon, Teamsters reach pay deal at Detroit refinery (link)

• Foreign investment panel split on Nippon’s bid for US Steel (link)

CRYPTO
Fear & Greed

Headlines

• Bitcoin climbs above $105,000 on strategic reserve hopes (link)

• Ether may finally rise to record high next year, after lagging behind bitcoin (link)

• Why stablecoins are drawing more VC interest (link)

DAILY SHARE
On the Socials